Threshold incentives over multiple periods and the sales hockey stick phenomenon

In this article, we study threshold‐based sales‐force incentives and their impact on a dealer's optimal effort. A phenomenon, observed in practice, is that the dealer exerts a large effort toward the end of the incentive period to boost sales and reach the threshold to make additional profits. In the literature, the resulting last‐period sales spike is sometimes called the hockey stick phenomenon (HSP). In this article, we show that the manufacturer's choice of the incentive parameters and the underlying demand uncertainty affect the dealer's optimal effort choice. This results in the sales HSP over multiple time periods even when there is a cost associated with waiting. We then show that, by linking the threshold to a correlated market signal, the HSP can be regulated. We also characterize the variance of the total sales across all the periods and demonstrate conditions under the sales variance can be reduced. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

军事供应链不确定性产生机理研究

军事供应链中不可避免地存在不确定性。构建了军事供应链不确定性产生机理的概念模型,从需求、供应、环境三个方面分析了军事供应链不确定性产生的原因,同时,对军事供应链中可能存在的各种不确定性进行了讨论,明确了加剧不确定性影响的因素是军事供应链系统的复杂性。具体表现为军事供应链成员交互关系的复杂性和军事供应链网络结构的复杂性。提出正是由于这两个原因的存在,对军事供应链的保障性能产生了巨大的影响。     

攻击大目标子母弹射击概率的分析与估算

射击概率是子母弹武器效能分析的重要参数,本文以攻击大（线）目标子母弹为对象,提出一种计算命中概率的简便的近似法,计算结果表明该方法计算量小,计算精度工程上可接受;本文还引出了子母弹封锁概率的概念,并作了初步分析。本文结果对子母弹武器论证与设计使用将提供有益的参考。     

The impact of animal welfare regulations on firms' product offerings: Humane or organic product?

Increased public concerns about animal welfare have spurred new regulations to improve animals' treatment and living conditions. We study how these regulations affect firms' product offerings, prices, and profits. We consider two competing animal agriculture supply chains, each consisting of a supplier and a buyer. New regulations require firms to choose between offering humane or organic products, which are differentiated by animals' living conditions. We find that consumers' growing awareness of animal welfare encourages firms to offer organic products, which require the highest standards for animals' living conditions. We also show that tightening humane product standards and loosening organic product standards encourage firms to offer organic products—but with distinct pricing implications. The former leads to higher retail prices whereas the latter may lower retail prices. Depending on costs and consumers' awareness of animal welfare, a humane product may be priced higher or lower than an organic product. Furthermore, we provide conditions under which a regulator should offer a unit-cost or an investment cost subsidy to improve social welfare. We show that subsidies can encourage firms to change from offering humane to organic products, or vice versa, to enhance total social welfare.     

保密通信中同相和正交通道失衡对干扰抑制性能的影响

针对同时存在恶意干扰与非法窃听的通信环境,提出一种协作干扰(cooperative jamming, CJ)掩护的保密通信架构,收发信机之间采用跳频技术躲避恶意干扰,并采用协作干扰技术阻塞非法窃听。但该架构的通信带宽较大,会在收发频率振荡器中引起显著的同相和正交(in-phase and quadrature, IQ)通道失衡。鉴于此,对收发IQ通道失衡引起的信号失真进行数学建模,给出接收机处信干噪比的数学表达式,并给出干扰抑制比的闭合表达式。仿真结果表明,收发IQ通道失衡引起的信号失真的功率远大于热噪声功率。随着收发IQ通道失衡加剧,所提架构的信干噪比和干扰抑制比性能均会急剧下降,当幅度和相位失衡分别达到0.95和π/50时,信干噪比和干扰抑制比均损失了47 dB。     

空时分组编码的译码算法

空时分组编码是最近提出的使用多个天线应用于瑞利衰落信道的编码技术。利用传输矩阵的正交性推导出其译码算法的一般表达式     

Performance analysis of queue length monitoring of M/G/1 systems

This study investigates the statistical process control application for monitoring queue length data in M/G/1 systems. Specifically, we studied the average run length (ARL) characteristics of two different control charts for detecting changes in system utilization. First, the nL chart monitors the sums of successive queue length samples by subgrouping individual observations with sample size n. Next is the individual chart with a warning zone whose control scheme is specified by two pairs of parameters, (upper control limit, d_u) and (lower control limit, d_l), as proposed by Bhat and Rao (Oper Res 20 (1972) 955–966). We will present approaches to calculate ARL for the two types of control charts using the Markov chain formulation and also investigate the effects of parameters of the control charts to provide useful design guidelines for better performance. Extensive numerical results are included for illustration. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

舰炮武器系统对大目标跟踪精度评估修正方法

随着技术的发展,舰炮武器系统的精度水平越来越高.在真实目标环境下一些影响系统精度评估的因素必须加以考虑,将具有相当外形尺度的目标作为点目标考虑势必带来系统精度评估的误差.针对大尺度目标,在目标坐标系下建立了目标外形尺度模型.利用目标坐标系和瞄准线坐标系之间的坐标变换,得到目标外形尺度在瞄准线法面上的描述,据此提出了一种大目标瞄准精度评估修正的计算方法.     

一个新的类FEISTEL密码方案

分析了RSA和DES的算法优点和安全弱点,设计了一个新的密码算法方案。该方案以类FEISTEL结构为基础增强了左右两半部分结构的安全设计,利用了RSA进行密钥分配,并以序列密码算法的生成原理改变了固定密钥的缺点。该新方案具有一次一密的特点,给破译者获得大量的明密文对造成了很大的困难,可较好地抵抗差分分析与线性分析,是一种安全性较强的加密方案。     

演化硬件中变异概率对进化算法首次命中时间的影响

在(1+1)EAs中,采用马尔可夫链推移时间分析法,推导出了平均首次命中时间的表达式。从理论上分析了变异概率对平均首次命中时间的影响。结果表明适当的变异概率会缩短平均首次命中时间,加快进化算法的寻优时间。